What History Teaches About Electric Vehicles
What History Teaches About Electric Vehicles
Reinventing the Wheel - Issue 1
There is enormous interest in electric vehicles, though enthusiasm for shares in EV start-ups has waned over the last year. Major OEMs have announced hundreds of billions in investments in EVs and batteries, and clearly expect widespread adoption of EVs in China, Europe and North America. But are these expectations realistic? EVs have advantages over those powered by internal combustion (IC) engines, in operating/maintenance costs and in acceleration. With the coming wave of EV models, consumers will have a range of attractively designed choices in every vehicle segment. But there remain major issues with price and convenience.
EV are not new: many of the first cars were electric. A Scientific American article analyzes why IC engines have dominated electric power since the dawn of the automotive age. Based on data on 36,000 (!) US models from 1895 to 1942, the authors note that while electric cars had performance advantages that compensated for their higher cost, most households had little or no access to electricity until the 1930s, when rural electrification came in during the New Deal. By the time this issue was solved, gasoline cars had an insurmountable incumbency. The authors suggest that if electrification had happened 20 years earlier, electric cars would have been preferred, at least in urban areas. They believe this history demonstrates the importance of complementary infrastructure for large-scale transitions and argue for government support to speed the EV transition today.
Inertia is a powerful force. There are currently about 285 million IC cars in the US alone – more than 99% of the total. For a true EV transition, a robust charging infrastructure is a necessary but not sufficient. Despite the support for EV chargers in the 2022 infrastructure bill, putting enough in place will not be easy:
· There must be enough public chargers so that the distances between them is not too great.
· Even fast charging takes more time than filling a gas tank, and so more chargers may be needed per EV than gas pumps per IC vehicle.
· The power grid must be robust enough to provide reliable support.
· The cost of retrofitting household garages and electrical systems must be low.
Even if all these issues are solved, the cost of batteries remains a problem. Much of the recent improvements in battery efficiency and manufacturing costs has been wiped out by jumps in the cost of raw materials. The EV transition still seems inevitable, but it could be a very bumpy ride.
Sources
Blanco S, “Electric Cars' Turning Point May Be Happening as U.S. Sales Numbers Start Climb”, Car and Driver, 8 Aug 2022.
Taalbi J and H Neilsen, “The New Deal Came Too Late for Electric Vehicles”, Scientific American, 3 Nov 2021.